Most management frameworks are optimised for predictability. That same optimisation systematically dulls your ability to detect emerging risks and opportunities — precisely when early detection matters most.
When the unarticulated needs behind customer demand remain unknown, every feature built for a running system becomes more of a gamble than a certain increment.
Moving towards a desired state assumes you can define one. In a complex system, that assumption breaks down. The critical skill is knowing when a forecast will serve you — and when only probing the system with multiple fail to safe experiments will be the better (and cheaper) option.
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